GLENDALE, Ariz. – One team is in first place with a 10-3 record, the other in last at 3-10.
Finding momentum amid a potential mismatch shouldn’t be hard for the NFC-leading 49ers, if they want to retain their position for the No. 1 playoff seed and wild-card bye.
The 49ers, by virtue of a win today over the host Cardinals, also can clinch the NFC West for a second straight year.
Beyond those stakes, however, is a reminder of the 49ers’ rock-bottom stature before their rise to prominence. They opened 0-9 in 2017 under a first-year, first-time head coach in Kyle Shanahan. These Cardinals began 1-8 under first-year, first-time head coach in Jonathan Gannon.
Shanahan closed his initial season by going 5-0, in Jimmy Garoppolo’s first starts at quarterback. Gannon’s debut campaign also has found a spark with a quarterback change: They’re 2-2 in Kyler Murray’s return from anterior cruciate ligament repair.
Here are the 49ers’ three keys to avoiding an upset:
1. STUFF THE INTERIOR
Defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead won’t play because of leg injuries, so the onus will be on Javon Kinlaw, Kevin Givens and Kalia Davis to plug the interior against one of the more physical backs in the NFL, James Conner.
Conner ran for 105 yards and two touchdowns in the Cardinals’ last game, a 24-10 win at Pittsburgh that preceded last weekend’s bye. Conner’s past success against the 49ers included three touchdowns in a 2021 win. He had 52 yards on 11 carries in Arizona’s Oct. 1 loss at Levi’s Stadium.
Linebacker Fred Warner already has eclipsed the 100-tackle mark for the sixth time in six seasons. Presuming that his sidekick Dre Greenlaw will play through hip and ankle injuries, that tandem not only must contend with Conner but keep an eye on Murray, who the 49ers are concerned about slipping through gaps up the middle. Murray has three touchdowns on 26 carries (106 yards).
2. SCORE. SCORE. SCORE.
With Arizona native Brock Purdy leading them, the 49ers’ offensive juggernaut is averaging 29.2 points per game, third-most in the NFL behind the Dallas Cowboys (32.4) and the Miami Dolphins (31.6). In their 10 wins, the 49ers averaged 32.9 points.
The Cardinals have yet to score more than 28 points in any game this season, and their average of 17.7 per game is the sixth-fewest in the league.
Look for Christian McCaffrey to rediscover the end zone. He was shut out last game for only the second time in 26 starts with the 49ers.
“Their record is one thing but I don’t look at them at a 3-10 team at all,” McCaffrey said. “They play hard, they’re fast, they run to the ball extremely well. …First time we played them, they had a lot of guys that could fly around to the ball too. I think the character has always been there for that defense. It always has. It stands out on the tape and we have a lot of respect for that and know what we have coming on Sunday.”
Deebo Samuel has six touchdowns in the past three games – half rushing, half receiving. George Kittle scored twice in each win over the Cardinals last season, but he got only a 9-yard catch against them last outing so he’s due for an outburst.
3. MURRAY’S TARGETS
Murray is playing his fifth game since returning from an anterior cruciate ligament one year ago. The 49ers commended how fast he again appears, and they’re resisting the temptation to say they’ll contain him like they did two weeks ago with the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts.
Nick Bosa was highly complimentary of the only player drafted ahead of him in 2019, and George Kittle praised his tight end counterpart, Trey McBride, who leads the Cardinals with 56 catches for 610 yards (two touchdowns). “Kyler’s getting used to him, and a quarterback’s favorite player is a tight end that’s consistent, so I think he’s doing a great job with that and taking advantage of it,” Kittle said of McBride. “You look and he’s getting some extra YAC. He’s stiff-arming, he’s breaking some tackles, he’s not running out of bounds. He’s doing all the right things and it’s fun to see that.”
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Marquise Brown did not get targeted in the Cardinals’ win at Pittsburgh, and while he’s battling a heel injury, his play-making ability (51 catches, four touchdowns) remains a big threat, as are those of fellow receivers Rondale Moore and Stanford product Michael Wilson.
Because Charvarius Ward sustained a groin injury early last game, the 49ers’ cornerback corps could need Ambry Thomas and Deommodore Lenoir to stay hot or have another players step up, too.
