SANTA CLARA — With three games left in the regular season, the high-scoring, star-filled 49ers are hosting an AFC juggernaut in a potential Super Bowl preview.
That scenario played out in 1994, against the Chargers on the 49ers’ way to their most recent Lombardi Trophy.
That also could describe the 49ers’ current path.
On Monday night, the NFC-leading 49ers (11-3) welcome the AFC-leading Baltimore Ravens (11-3) as Christmas guests at Levi’s Stadium.
Both teams are positioned as the No. 1 seed for their respective conference playoffs that begin next month, with a potential rematch in store at Super Bowl LVII on Feb. 11 in Las Vegas.
In 1994, the 49ers came off a 50-14 divisional win (over the Atlanta Falcons) before beating the then-San Diego Chargers 38-14 in a December duel. In their rematch 49 days later, the 49ers won Super Bowl XXIX 49-26.
This year, the 49ers are the first team to make the NFC playoffs, and the Ravens followed suit Sunday night as the AFC’s first entry, with a 23-7 win at Jacksonville. It was Baltimore’s fourth straight win. The 49ers have won a season-high six in a row (all by double digits), following their three-game losing streak and bye week.
Only once before have teams sharing the NFL’s best record met 15 weeks into a season: a 1993 Cowboys overtime win over the Giants. Only once before have the 49ers played on Christmas: a 1993 home loss to the Oilers, right after clinching the NFC West.
THIS WEEK’S STORYLINES
1. MVP RACE: Is Brock Purdy or Christian McCaffrey the 49ers’ better candidate for NFL Most Valuable Player? Wait, what about the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson? Ravens coach John Harbaugh said he believes Jackson is the league’s best quarterback but added of the MVP chatter: “I could care less about any of that, and the beautiful thing is Lamar couldn’t care less either. What we care about is the game.” This game’s victor very well could lock up the MVP, in a season where Super Bowl expectations loom larger. Jackson, after all, won NFL MVP in 2019 but lost his playoff opener and lacks a Super Bowl ring.
2. RUN DEFENSE: The 49ers surrendered 234 rushing yards to Arizona and had 16 missed tackles, according to Pro Football Focus. The Ravens’ NFL-leading rushing attack racked up 254 yards (204 after halftime) in their Sunday night win. But they lost speedy rookie Keaton Mitchell to a season-ending knee injury. Melvin Gordon III, Gus Edwards and Justice Hall shouldn’t threaten the 49ers’ streak of 41 straight games of not allowing a 100-yard rusher. Jackson just ran for 97 yards against the Jaguars, and four 49ers defenders – Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Arik Armstead, and Nick Bosa – remain from the 2019 meeting where Jackson ran for 101 yards and a touchdown.
3. McCAFFREY RECORD WATCH: With 20 touchdowns, McCaffrey is only three shy of matching Jerry Rice’s single-season franchise record, which he set in just 12 games during the 1997 season (which ended with a playoff-opening loss to Minnesota as the NFC’s top seed). Sunday’s three touchdowns (two receiving, one rushing) marked McCaffrey’s sixth game this season with rushing and receiving scores (a 49ers record), and his 15 such career games match Marshall Faulk’s NFL record. McCaffrey has an NFL-best 1,292 rushing yards, and, with 509 receiving yards, he’s only the fourth player in NFL history to hit the 1,000/500 marks for a fourth season.
4. BLOCK MADUBUIKE: The 49ers may want to remind themselves how they’ve neutralized Aaron Donald over the years, because here comes defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, the first Ravens player to notch double-digit sacks since Terrell Suggs in 2017. Madubuike has a team-high 12 sacks, and he’s matched an NFL record with at least a half-sack in 11 straight games. He’s not a one-man show. The Ravens’ 50 sacks lead the NFL. Time to again activate the Purdy Protection Plan.
5. TIGHT END DUEL: The Ravens’ Isaiah Likely has come on strong (14 catches, 183 yards, two touchdowns) since Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews went on Injured Reserve. The 49ers just allowed 10 catches for 102 yards to the Cardinals’ tight end, Trey McBride. Those are numbers George Kittle could put up, if needed, but he’s used more of a trusted ally in clutch situations, such as Sunday’s pair of third-down conversions.
INJURY WATCH
These are the health concerns:
49ers
*RB Christian McCaffrey (right knee)
*DE Nick Bosa (foot, knee)
CB Deommodore Lenoir (ribs)
DT Arik Armstead (foot, knee)
DT Javon Hargrave (hamstring)
DE Clelin Ferrell (ankle)
WR Jauan Jennings (concussion)
DT Kalia Davis (ankle)
RB Elijah Mitchell (knee)
TE Ross Dwelley (ankle)
LB Oren Burks (knee)
*Both McCaffrey and Bosa downplayed Sunday’s issues in which they received in-game treatment, and neither was on coach Kyle Shanahan’s Monday injury sheet. Bosa came out a snap because of a foot injury, and he had a bag of ice wrapped around a knee postgame.
Ravens
RB Keaton Mitchell (knee; season is over)
S Marcus Williams (groin)
LT Ronnie Stanley (concussion)
CB Jalyn Armour-Davis (concussion)
S Kyle Harrison (knee)
LB Malik Hamm (ankle)
PLAYOFF PICTURE
The 49ers essentially own a two-game lead for the NFC’s No. 1 seed by virtue of tiebreaker advantages in head-to-head wins over the Eagles and the Cowboys as well as a better record in conference games than them and the Lions. If the 49ers win two of the final three regular-season games — against the Ravens on Monday, at the Commanders on Dec. 31, against the Rams in Week 18 — then they secure the No. 1 seed, a wild-card bye and home-field advantage.
The 49ers can sew up the No. 1 seed as early as Monday night if they win after a trio of competitor’s losses: the Lions (10-4) at the Vikings (7-7), the Cowboys (10-4) at the Dolphins (10-4), the Eagles (10-4) against the Giants (5-9).
The Ravens are the AFC’s only team to already clinch a playoff berth, and they can secure the AFC North with a win. They have a one-game lead for the No. 1 seed ahead of the Miami Dolphins, who visit the Ravens on New Year’s Eve.
COACHES CORNER
Ravens’ John Harbaugh: “I view it as a really tough game against a really good team that plays a really good brand of football. They do it all on both sides of the ball. They’re tough, they’re physical, they’re disciplined. They play hard. They play winning football, and (I have) a lot of respect for them. I have a lot of respect for the coaches and the players. There’s just nothing about how they’re built that you couldn’t respect, so we understand that. What I’m looking to see is how we respond to that challenge, because we’re going to go into there (as) big underdogs, traveling all the way across the country (on) Christmas day (and) Advent. We’ll be looking forward to it. It will be a big challenge for us.”
49ers’ Kyle Shanahan: “Just the way they run their organization with John and the group of coaches they have there, the style that they play to. You always know what you’re going to get from their team. We haven’t played them in a little bit, but I know that hasn’t changed. You always see them on tape, you always see their numbers and they still have the same quarterback who will always be as big of an issue as there is. I know it’s a number of years later and there’s a bunch of different guys out there, but the style’s going to be, to me, extremely similar.”
LAST MEETING
In what was also billed as a potential Super Bowl preview, the host Ravens beat the 49ers 20-17 on Justin Tucker’s field goal as time expired of a rainy and windy game on Dec. 1, 2019. The 49ers were driving for their own go-ahead score but, rather than give another carry to 146-yard rusher Raheem Mostert, their final offensive play was a fourth-and-1 incompletion from Jimmy Garoppolo to George Kittle with 6 ½ minutes remaining. The 49ers then spent the week in Bradenton, Florida, before a triumphant shootout in New Orleans and eventually a Super Bowl berth.
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SERIES HISTORY
Speaking of Super Bowl defeats, yes, the 49ers’ first came against the Ravens in the 2012 season’s grand finale in New Orleans. It was a wacky, 34-31 loss in which the 49ers fell behind 28-6 when they allowed a touchdown on the second half’s opening kickoff; then came a bizarre power outage, a 49ers’ comeback, and three consecutive failed passes from Colin Kaepernick to Michael Crabtree from the 5-yard line to clinch the defeat. The 49ers beat the Ravens two years later at Levi’s Stadium, 25-20, as Kaepernick passed for 340 yards and two touchdowns. The Ravens hold a 5-2 series advantage.
WEATHER
Less than 10% chance of rain is forecast for next Monday night with temperatures dipping from 61 degrees to 41 degrees, according to Weather.com. This week’s heavy rain should stop ahead of the 49ers’ return to practice Thursday.
BETTING LINE
The 49ers opened as a 5-point favorite at BetMGMSportsbook and that spread climbed to 5.5 points Tuesday morning with an over/under at 45.5 points.
Prediction: 49ers 23, Ravens 20
