The Dodgers have already won the offseason, flexing financial might unprecedented in the sport.
Los Angeles has committed over a billion dollars to two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, Japanese phenom pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto and by trading for and extending pitcher Tyler Glasnow.
Per multiple reports, Yamamoto chose the Dodgers over bids from both New York teams, the Giants, Boston, Toronto and Philadelphia, agreeing to a 12-year, $325 million deal. His contract — the most money ever guaranteed to a pitcher — includes a $50 million signing bonus, an additional $50.6 million posting fee, and a pair of opt-outs, per ESPN.
Yamamoto, the three-time Pacific League MVP, was a perfect Giants target — a potential global superstar who would sell jerseys and ticket sales and give the Giants an identity as a team built around sensational starting pitching.
Now, he’s a Dodger. Their spending spree makes them the clear favorite in the National League West, which they have won 10 of the past 11 years. Their roster has MVPs in Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, plus Glasnow, Yamamoto, Will Smith, Max Muncy and James Outman. And they’re probably not done; because of the deferments on Ohtani’s unconventional deal, their payroll is estimated to be below the highest luxury tax threshold.
For the Giants, the signing is a double whammy: not only did they miss out on Yamamoto, he’s also now their rival. It leaves them with a smaller margin for error to return to contention, one in which their only chance to compete is to make multiple more splashes.
But the Dodgers won’t swoop up every free agent, and there’s still plenty of talented players available. The Giants, after signing Korean centerfielder Jung Hoo Lee, are expected to remain active. They’ve operated at the top of the free agent class all winter, and that likely won’t change.
There probably isn’t enough to free agent star power out there to bridge the gap between San Francisco and Los Angeles. But there are still ways for the Giants to improve their roster.
The top free agents remaining are Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger. Beyond them, Shota Imanaga, Jordan Montgomery and Rhys Hoskins could also be strong upgrades.
Snell, the reigning Cy Young winner, would pair nicely with Logan Webb atop San Francisco’s rotation. The 31-year-old doesn’t fit the typical mold of a Giants pitcher, though, as he led MLB in walks last year. He also doesn’t shoulder a heavy work load, maxing out a career-best 180 innings last season. But perhaps that profile could complement Webb, the righty who goes deep into games, generates constant soft contact and hardly walks batters.
The fastest way for the Giants to return to contention would be to form as strong a starting rotation as they can, playing off the characteristics of their home ballpark and their incumbent strengths. A top-six of Snell, Webb, Alex Cobb, Kyle Harrison, Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn has quality and depth.
Under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, the Giants have been hesitant to dole out long-term contracts for starting pitchers. Would they break that trend for Snell, the excellent yet flawed left-hander?
Snell and Chapman both have experience playing for Giants manager Bob Melvin. Chapman, the two-time Platinum Glove winner, spent five years in Oakland with Melvin and is one of the skipper’s favorites.
The price on Chapman, in a shallow free agent class for position players, will be steep. He’s a streaky hitter and his athleticism could wane into his 30s. But for the next two to four years at least, he’s a good bet to be a rock-solid third baseman and a sturdy presence in the top half of a batting order. The Giants have options at third — J.D. Davis, Casey Schmitt, perhaps Marco Luciano eventually — but San Francisco needs reliable, everyday players and Chapman certainly qualifies.
Bellinger is an even riskier bet, and an even tougher fit now that Lee is in the mix. Just two years ago, the Dodgers nontendered him because of his suddenly unplayable bat. In the three seasons after his 2019 MVP campaign, Bellinger hit .203 with 41 home runs (he hit 47 in 2019). The contract Bellinger will seek is as mysterious about how sustainable his numbers with the Cubs are; he bounced back from the batter’s box, but did so with underwhelming batted ball metrics.
The Giants’ outfield in 2024 already has Lee, Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater, Luis Matos, Heliot Ramos, Tyler Fitzgerald, Blake Sabol and Wade Meckler. They probably already need to make a trade, and signing Bellinger would require clearing even more space. That doesn’t mean the Giants shouldn’t explore the option — even in a down year, Bellinger would give the Giants more upside than they’ve had in the outfield in years.
Imanaga, another Japanese starting pitcher, isn’t as coveted as Yamamoto because he’s five years older. But his performance in Nippon Professional Baseball — and in the World Baseball Classic — is impressive. The left-hander registered a 2.66 ERA in Japan last year and had a magnificent 7.83 strikeout-to-walk ratio (Webb led the NL with a 6.26 K:BB).
Imanaga won’t command as much as Snell and is a year younger. He’s obviously much more of an unknown, but might fit the Giants mold more. MLB Trade Rumors projected a five-year, $85 million contract for Imanaga, plus the release fee, which would be well within the Giants’ budget.
Montgomery and Hoskins aren’t on the same level as those other free agents, but each has potential. Montgomery was a playoff hero for the World Series Rangers last year, putting him in line for a big payday. But Montgomery’s career track record makes him look more like a strong third starter than an ace. Hoskins, a Sacramento native, hit 30 home runs in 2022 — his last healthy season — and would supply much-needed power to a Giants team that finished 19th in homers last year.
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There are options. None of them are Ohtani or Yamamoto. The Giants are in a position where they must chase the remaining free agents to a least try to compete and stay relevant, but can’t spend bad money. They’ll need to pluck from multiple buckets to seriously improve. To shop at Costco, not Tiffany’s.
Last winter, the Giants missed out on — or declined to follow through with — the top of the free agent market. They instead spread around money on several lower tier options Haniger, Conforto, Sean Manaea, Taylor Rogers and Ross Stripling.
Just because that strategy didn’t work last year doesn’t mean it’s a doomed one. And now, with Yamamoto a Dodger, it might be the only avenue left for the Giants.
