Welcome to homebuying’s slowest day of the year.
My trusty spreadsheet looked at some curious house-hunting stats from real estate tracker Attom, which tallied closed transactions and median pricing patterns by day of the year between 2013 and 2022. Yes, we’re talking daily data from closings – minus the bank holidays of New Year’s Day, Independence Day, Veterans Day, and Christmas.
That data shows us that Dec. 26 is the slowest sales day of the year.
The day after Christmas averaged 4,719 closings over 10 years, 62% below the average sales day in California with 12,270 closings in these 10 years. Obviously, sales are slow this time of year because who’d want to do big business amid holiday challenges and cheer.
Curiously, those who did close deals on this day paid an average $390,000 price – 19% below California’s $480,000 10-year norm. That pricing averaged $9,200 above the estimated value – a premium that’s 56% below the typical markup of $20,700.
So it seems like post-Christmas shopping bargains are part of California housing, too.
Conversely, Sept. 30 is a typical year’s busiest day. That day averages 24,064 sales, which are 96% above-par. Pricing runs $468,000 – just 2% below average, but with a $25,900 premium that’s 25% above the statewide norm.
Consider that this day marks the end of the third quarter. That creates a push to close, especially by lenders, to get the most business into the quarterly books. June 30, the end of the second quarter, is the No. 2 day for sales volume.
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Please note how closings climb as a month proceeds. The first 10 days had 29% of all California closings in 2013-22, the next 10 had 32% share, and 39% of all deals were finished in the remainder of the month.
‘Tis the season
Attom offered these stats as a way to suggest a “best” day for homebuying. Of course, what’s “best” depends on whether you’re a buyer or seller.
Plus, closing dates come with relatively random timing – plus or minus a few days – that come several weeks after a sales contract is signed. Let’s politely say there’s little strategic value in this daily math.
Still, these figures remind us about house hunting’s cyclicality.
Winter is slower and cheaper. Late spring and summer and hotter and pricier.
Industry logic says those trends are tied to families with school-age children who want to relocate before a school year starts. This young family demographic often buys bigger, more expensive homes.
So think about such calendar traits when peeking at some eye-catching gaps between a year’s pricing extremes – by day – for California home sales.
For price, California’s low point is Jan. 30 at an average $365,000. The high is Sept. 7 at $549,000.
Swings in premiums paid above estimated values: Jan. 2 is the bottom at $ 1,900 vs. the top on May 26 at $44,000.
Bottom line
I wonder how homebuying’s seasonality might change with California’s older population and a low birth rate creating fewer households with children to support a spring “rush” to buy.
Also, will online tools make house hunting easier and quicker, hence broadening the times of year people actively shop or sell homes?
However, I know that no matter the demographic swings or technological changes, many Californians won’t juggle the hassle of a home closing during the holidays.
So, today could be the worst day to buy a California home for years to come.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
