The Giants are going to start their spring training exhibition schedule on Saturday, which is, itself, a reason to celebrate.
We did it, folks. We survived the long, cruel months without Major League Baseball. (Thanks for the help, Niners and Caribbean Series.)
But while (fake) games are about to be played, buddy, things are not hunky dory with the Giants.
After another underwhelming offseason, the Giants head into the exhibition schedule carrying questions galore.
But three stand out above the others.
Here’s what I want answered this spring:
Can this team really count on Jung Hoo Lee?
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I have no problem with the Lee signing. He seems like a nice player, and it’s not my money.
But being a “nice” player on this roster makes you a bit of a unicorn — it makes you someone this team will rely upon day in and day out this season.
And that all seems like a lot to ask of Lee.
The glove will play in center. That’s worth something. Lee’s bat-to-ball skills should translate just fine. That’s worth something, too.
The question is, what happens to the ball once the bat finds it?
Lee is unlikely to be a big home run hitter — the transition to the big leagues and Oracle Park should zap whatever power he has beyond roughly 10 home runs.
But there’s nothing wrong with being a doubles guy. You can lead by being a doubles guy.
Is Lee going to be a doubles guy?
Some of the projection systems love him. The Bat X — my favorite — thinks Lee will be 14 percent better than league average this season. They also project him for a 10.6 percent strike-out rate — the highest of all the major projection systems, but still the fifth-lowest mark in the big leagues.
This will work.
But projection systems and sportswriter guesses don’t mean much.
Lee actually has to go out there and do the thing, and his challenge to do that is so much different from some kid being called up from the minors.
Lee must adapt to living and working in a different country and to a much higher level of competition.
Oh, all while there are serious expectations on him, because, again, the Giants need him to be good to make the playoffs this season.
It all sounds like a lot — enough to make you second-guess immediate success.
The Giants have cited the success of Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim as a reason to believe Lee will make an immediate impact in the big leagues.
What is not mentioned in those comparisons is that Kim struggled at the plate his first two seasons, posting a 94 OPS+ before breaking out as a down-ballot MVP candidate last year.
The Giants have Lee locked up for a long time, but they can’t wait three years for the best version of him to arrive in San Francisco.
Does this team have enough pitching?
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How Bob Melvin sees SF Giants’ starting rotation shaping up
There’s one big number every big league team needs to worry about this time of year:
It’s 1,400.
Teams pitched between 1453.2 and 1409 innings last season.
No matter how a roster is constructed, your team needs to be able to throw 1,400 innings.
And I don’t see how the Giants can effectively do it. This team is one Logan Webb oblique tweak away from abject disaster.
This isn’t to say I don’t like some of the Giants’ young starters — I do.
And I like the bullpen, too.
However, as things are currently constructed, the Giants lack the arms to get through the first half of the season, when some reinforcements are reportedly ready to rejoin the rotation. (We’ll see.)
As of the start of this week, the Giants’ rotation was:
• Webb (a bulldog, awesome)
• Jordan Hicks (eight career starts, but a hell of a reliever)
• Kyle Harrison (314 innings pitched since high school)
• Tristian Beck (27 years old, average stuff, average control)
• Keaton Winn (Already sidelined with an elbow injury)
Are there more after those five? You bet — so many more.
But no one you would dare trust.
Those are the five best pitchers currently on the roster from which the Giants could make a rotation.
Those are the five pitchers that will need to carry the load for the first 100-something games of the season, until Alex Cobb (hip) and Robbie Ray (Tommy John Surgery) can return, creating — in theory — a wicked 1, 2, 3 with Webb.
Yikes.
Hey, maybe Mason Black is the real deal. Maybe Carson Whisenhunt or Landen Roupp is ready for the big leagues. Daulton Jeffries was once a first-round pick — he might be able to hold down the fort for a couple of starts.
It’s as if the Giants conceded that all pitchers will become injured, so, like your crazy uncle in Arkansas, they’re just stockpiling arms.
Their issue is that they might be a year too early on some of those arms they stockpiled.
And the top arms they stockpiled outside of Webb — Harrison, Winn, Hicks — aren’t worthy of much trust.
Between this and the dependence on Lee to make an immediate impact, it makes me wonder:
Is this team done?
Because they could sure use another reliable starting pitcher and top-end bat.
It’s a shame there are none on the free agent market anymore.
Wait, what’s that now?
Well then…
