SAN FRANCISCO — As the Warriors’ rotation, a revolving door of experimenting with combinations this year, finally seems to be rounding into shape, an all-time great is about to insert himself back into the mix.
That’s not a bad problem to have at all, but it will give Steve Kerr more tough decisions to make on a game-by-game basis, particularly with what always matters most: who plays in crunch time.
The Warriors expect Chris Paul to return as soon as their upcoming road trip next week, and he’s not coming back from his fractured hand to sit on the bench. Paul’s reintegration with the team is bound to cause what Kerr calls a “numbers crunch,” and his fit into their plans will almost certainly be fluid.
The Warriors, winners of nine of their last 11, have forged an identity lately. If you ask them, Paul is more likely than not to improve it rather than disrupt.
“Well first, you’d be an idiot not to think CP can help us,” Steph Curry said Thursday after the Warriors’ win over the Lakers. “He has an ability to exist in whatever lineup he’s out there with and elevate them. The question is, from a night-to-night perspective you start with the idea of who’s going to close the game.”
Paul, 38, has the basketball IQ and all-around skill set to fit with various combinations of teammates. When he was healthy earlier in the year, he was one of the steadiest players for the Warriors. Of Golden State’s 10 most productive lineups in terms of points per 100 possessions, Paul is a member of seven. His chemistry with power forward Dario Saric in the pick-and-pop particularly surfaced.
“I’m excited to get Chris back,” Kerr said. “The first 35-40 games of the year, it felt like the strength of our team was our second unit, led by Chris and Dario (Saric). I think we have a real chance here now to put together, when Chris gets back, the best possible 48-minute effort that we can. Between the starting group that has found success and Chris and Klay now really anchoring that second unit — I’m excited about it.”
Even with everything he can bring to the team, keeping Paul’s minutes regulated will probably be a priority. Not only is the veteran injury-prone, but the Warriors likely won’t want to risk interrupting the vibe they’ve developed over the past three weeks.
The most likely lineup for Paul, then, is a cemented second unit of him, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Dario Saric and Trayce Jackson-Davis.
With Jackson-Davis as a roll man and screen partner for both Paul and Thompson, the Warriors should have enough north-south force. Saric presents shooting and extra size next to the rookie in the frontcourt. The Wiggins spot could become interchangeable between him, Lester Quinones and Moses Moody depending on which wing is playing with the most confidence.
Against the Lakers, it was easy to see how Paul would fit into that lineup. They played that combination with Podziemski in the Paul spot, and several offensive possessions looked clunky. Paul is exactly the type of floor general the group needs — someone who can generate open looks for Paul and Saric, take care of the ball and create with the shot clock winding down.
Those Paul minutes will fill in the blanks while Curry sits. But nearly half of Paul’s 882 minutes played this year have come alongside Curry. What will be most interesting upon his return is how much Paul and Curry overlap — specifically to close games.
The team has lauded Paul’s experience and calm as key traits to help them execute late in close games. Although some of Golden State’s fourth-quarter collapses came with Paul on the floor, the trend of coughing up late leads intensified with him sidelined.
Maintaining leads in the fourth quarter is going to be a major key for Golden State going forward. Based on how things have clicked for the team in recent weeks, it appears Paul will compete with both Thompson and Podziemski for one spot in the closing five, with Curry, Wiggins, Kuminga and Green in concrete roles for now.
If that’s the case, at least one future Hall of Famer is going to be left out on most nights.
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“The only way it can work is if everyone buys in,” Kerr said. “If everyone accepts the fact that every night could be a little different. We can’t wait to get Chris back, obviously. He’s been one of our best players. He’s in all of our best lineups. He’s a great player, great point guard, does so many good things for us.”
Paul will give Kerr and the Warriors another option upon his return. But sometimes having more options isn’t always better. Coaches don’t want a Cheesecake Factory menu, they want the chef’s selection.
They want to have a Death Lineup in their back pocket to lean on when the game’s in the balance. Even with Paul, the Warriors won’t have that.
“I think every coach would rather have it just be really clean and easy, here are your five guys,” Kerr said. “Here’s how every game’s going to go, and you just ride with that. That makes it really easy. But it’s not always that way, and this year it’s not that way at all. So we have to figure out, game-to-game, how we want to close.
“Sometimes it makes itself pretty clear, the game does. You see how the game’s going and you just ride with a group that’s going well. But sometimes it’s not clear at all. And those are the hard ones, where you have to make a decision when it’s very blurred and there’s no easy answer. And you’ve got to ride with that and live with the results.”
