It might seem like the presidential election is still a long way off. Summer only began last week. But it’s coming fast.
The Republican National Convention starts in three weeks, on July 15. Californians will begin early voting for the Nov. 5 election in a little more than three months. And the first major event of the general election campaign — a high-stakes debate between President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump — is set for Thursday.
Polls show the race is very close. Audiences for previous debates have been huge. The country is polarized.
A wildcard now is Trump’s conviction last month by a New York jury on 34 felony counts for falsifying business records in a scheme to pay hush money before the 2016 election to a porn actress who said they had an affair. And with the two oldest candidates in U.S. history squaring off, with Trump, 78, and Biden, 81, experts say slip-ups or stumbles could play a greater role than in the past.
“A lot of this is going to be about appearance, not the criteria by which high school debates are judged,” said Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College. “And I say this having judged many high school debates.”
Many experts expect it to be a brawl.
“I’m looking forward to it. I’ll have my hazmat suit on,” said Larry Gerston, a professor emeritus of political science at San Jose State University.
When is the debate?
The first presidential debate of the 2024 election, and the first time Trump and Biden have squared off on the same stage in four years, is scheduled for 6 p.m. PDT Thursday.
Where is the debate?
The 90-minute event will be held at CNN studios in Atlanta. The moderators will be Dana Bash and Jake Tapper. Bash, 53, is host of Inside Politics and co-anchor of State of the Union, both programs on CNN. Tapper, 55, is CNN’s lead Washington anchor and co-host of State of the Union.
How can I watch it?
The debate will be broadcast live on CNN, along with CNN International and CNN en Español. CNN is allowing other networks to air it live if they use CNN’s logo on the screen. ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, Fox News, Univision, NewsNation, C-SPAN and others have agreed.
What if I don’t have a TV?
Viewers also can watch on CNN.com, NPR.org, YouTube or the streaming platform Max on their computers, tablets or phones.
Will other candidates, like Robert Kennedy Jr., be there?
No. To participate in the debate, CNN required candidates from all political parties to have qualified to appear on enough state ballots to win at least the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the election, and to have reached at least 15% in four national polls. Although he has met the 15% threshold in three national polls that CNN recognizes, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has so far turned in enough verified signatures to qualify for the ballot in only six states — California, Michigan, Hawaii, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah — far short of the 270 needed.
Other third-party candidates, including Jill Stein of the Green Party, Libertarian Chase Oliver and independent Cornel West, also have failed to meet the thresholds.
What are the ground rules?
Both Trump and Biden agreed that there will be no studio audience, something the Biden camp demanded. Each candidate will have 2 minutes to answer a question from the moderators, one minute for rebuttals and one minute for responses to the rebuttals. Red lights will show when their time is expiring. If Trump or Biden exceeds the time, his microphone will be cut off.
Trump was criticized during the two debates in 2020 for repeatedly interrupting Biden, and talking over the moderators.
Neither candidate is allowed to bring notes to the stage, although they can bring a pen, notepad and water. There will be two commercial breaks. During those, the candidates cannot meet with their advisors or staff.
A coin toss was held before the debate, which Biden won, allowing him to select whether he wanted to speak last, or choose his podium. He chose the podium on the right side of the screen. Experts say viewers tend to be drawn more to figures on the right side of stages, which is why nearly all late night TV hosts sit on the right side. Trump chose to speak last as the debate winds up.
What issues are likely to come up?
Experts expect Trump to attack Biden on immigration, border security, crime and inflation, while Biden is likely to talk about record-low U.S. unemployment, his support for restoring abortion rights after Trump’s Supreme Court nominees overturned Roe v. Wade, and the need to preserve American democracy following the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters.
Wildcards include whether Trump will go after Biden’s son, Hunter, who was convicted of three felonies earlier this month for lying about his former drug use when he purchased a gun in 2018; or how much Biden will hammer Trump for being the first former president in history convicted of felonies.
Both will try to portray the other as corrupt and addled.
“Trump’s followers are only about one third of the electorate,” Gerston said. “He needs independents and people in the middle. He has to go beyond his core. He will try to say Biden has been a failure. Biden needs them also. He’ll say ‘Do you really want Trump back? You fired him. Remember last time? Remember COVID?’”
How many people will watch?
In their first debate in 2020, an estimated 73.1 million people tuned in. That wasn’t as many as the 84 million who watched the first debate between Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016. But it was the largest TV audience of the year, other than the Super Bowl. This year’s Super Bowl drew 123 million viewers. Also, Thursday’s debate highlights will be shown millions of times in social media clips afterward.
“A win for Biden is getting through the debate without any stumbles,” Pitney said. “A win for Trump would be a Biden stumble.”
When’s the next presidential debate?
The only other scheduled debate is set to be hosted by ABC on Sept. 10. David Muir and Linsey Davis will moderate.
