It’s now or never for the 49ers.
At 2-3, the Niners’ situation isn’t inherently dire. Sure, they’ve severely underperformed compared to expectations — botching the easy part of what is expected to be a difficult, back-loaded, schedule — but they’re not disqualified from anything yet. The NFC looks like a toss-up.
In fact, they can take the lead in the division if they beat the Seahawks on Thursday night.
But while Thursday’s game is not technically a must-win, it must be treated like one emotionally.
Because if the Niners cannot beat these Seahawks, under these circumstances, you won’t be able to believe they’ll beat nearly anyone for the rest of the season.
The operative word is “rest.”
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No one is coming into Sunday’s game fresh. It’s Thursday Night Football, after all — a downright barbaric, money-making practice (that, one must remember, was collectively bargained by the players and the league.)
The Niners and Seahawks both played Sunday, had a day off on Monday, walked through a practice on Tuesday, and the Niners were on a plane on Wednesday.
Needless to say, this is not a typical work week.
And yet the 49ers can consider themselves lucky compared to their rivals. Seattle will be playing its third game in 11 days on Thursday, having played on Monday Night Football in Detroit on Sept. 30, this past Sunday (a loss to the Giants) in Week 5, and now a Thursday nighter.
The Seahawks are down two top pass rushers, they’re on their third-string right tackle, and they have question marks up and down a defense that has allowed 71 points in its last two games.
That’s simply cruel. Is it any surprise the Seahawks’ injury report looks like a CVS receipt?
The Niners aren’t exactly spring chickens going into Thursday, but having come into this abnormal week off a normal Monday-to-Sunday schedule, they travel north with an advantage.
If the Niners cannot use it and beat the Seahawks, why should we have any reason to believe they’ll beat the Chiefs in Week 7? Or the Cowboys in Week 8? Or the Buccaneers after the bye week, or the — well, you get the picture.
“I think this season is so much about momentum and obviously staying healthy and getting ready for the next game,” Brock Purdy said Tuesday.
They had better grab that momentum now because after Thursday, the Niners’ schedule is hellacious. The squads mentioned above join five more playoff teams on the slate. The three other games on the docket are against the Bears (with the ever-improving Caleb Williams) and two more division games with the Seahawks and Cardinals.
In short, there are no obvious gimmes the rest of the way.
And it will be the Niners feeling a rest disadvantage as this season progresses.
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I don’t know who the Niners angered in the league office, but San Francisco entered the season with the league’s largest rest disadvantage in the past decade — minus-21 days to their opponents. They still have 18 days of that margin remaining. (The Patriots played on Thursday night before coming to Santa Clara in Week 4.)
So, while I’m sure the Niners don’t have much concern for the Seahawks at the moment, they’ll be feeling their pain in the coming weeks.
Even after this weekend’s “mini-bye” following a Thursday night game, the Chiefs will still be the more-rested team in the team’s Week 7 game — Kansas City will be coming off a whole bye week when it arrives in Santa Clara on Oct. 20.
Oh, and Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 32-6 — including playoffs and Super Bowls — coming off a bye, with a 12-1 record with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback.
Of course, the Cowboys will be coming off their bye when they play the Niners win Week 8. And then the Seahawks will be off their bye week when they play the Niners in Week 11, and the Bills are off before the team’s Week 13 matchup in Buffalo.
I know Christian McCaffrey, who has missed the Niners’ first five games and will miss a sixth on Thursday, is the NFL’s reigning offensive player of the year, but not even adding him to the lineup can overcome the addition of all that rest disadvantage.
It’s hard to pick up momentum when gravity is working against you, and these Niners will be climbing uphill the rest of the season once Thursday night’s game is over.
So they better start on even footing and take advantage of a weary Seahawks team by winning on Thursday.
I think they will. They should do it easily — even in their current state, they’re a far better team than Seattle.
But then again, when has this 2024 Niners team met expectations?
