Washington State received a slight boost from the College Football Playoff selection committee this week but not from ESPN’s playoff predictor.
The former moved the Cougars (8-1) up three spots in the rankings, to No. 18.
The latter has essentially sliced their outlook in half over the past 10 days and now gives the Cougars a 7 percent chance to reach the CFP.
For context, that’s the same percentage assigned to South Carolina, which has three losses in the SEC.
Of course, the Cougars are competing with the equivalent of a broken leg. Unlike all but a handful of teams in major college football, they have one road to the promised land, not two.
WSU is not eligible for one of the five automatic bids because of the Pac-12’s depleted status. Instead, the Cougars must qualify through the at-large pool, which has seven spots available.
Combine the limited options with a modest CFP ranking and their prospects for playoff glory are indisputably remote.
But remote is not the same as non-existent, so the Hotline plunged into the current data and upcoming schedules to determine the optimal set of results to propel the Cougars into the CFP.
(We considered all possibilities, including one that would help WSU immensely: Washington beating Oregon. If the Cougars could claim victory over the team that slayed the top-ranked Ducks, their resume would gain substantial heft. But the likelihood of the Huskies winning in Eugene is so remote — sorry, UW, but it’s true — that we are not including the scenario below.)
Here we go:
1. WSU must win out.
This step is obvious, essential and entirely reasonable. The Cougars must finish 11-1 to be part of the selection committee’s conversation and will be substantial favorites over New Mexico (4-6), Oregon State (4-5) and Wyoming (2-7).
2. Boise State cannot lose.
The Cougars would have a stronger case for inclusion if their lone loss was to a team that itself finished 12-1 and reached the CFP. At the moment, the Broncos are No. 13 in the rankings and on track to claim the Group of Five’s automatic berth.
3. Notre Dame must lose.
The Irish (8-1) are a major impediment — and not just to the Cougars. As an Independent, they must qualify through the at-large pool and are therefore in position to swipe a bid that would otherwise go to the SEC, Big 12, ACC … or WSU. Their current ranking (No. 8) ensures the Irish of a bid as long as they win out. But a loss to Virginia (5-5), Army (9-0) or USC (4-5) seemingly would push Notre Dame onto the outskirts of the CFP bubble, thereby widening WSU’s path.
4. Brigham Young and Miami must win their conferences.
WSU’s chances improve significantly if there are no teams from the Big 12 or ACC contending for the seven at-large bids. Because the No. 6 Cougars and No. 9 Hurricanes are the highest-ranked teams in their respective leagues, their continued success would relegate other teams (e.g., Colorado, Kansas State, SMU, Louisville and Clemson) to pretender status. But if either BYU or Miami loses, it could potentially remain above WSU in the rankings and take one of the precious at-large bids.
5. Chaos must reign in the SEC.
The behemoth currently has five of the top-12 teams in the CFP rankings. Many of those teams play each other, however, creating the smallest possible opening for the Cougars. If Georgia loses to Tennessee and Texas beats Texas A&M, the SEC could very well have just four teams with fewer than three losses (Texas, Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee). One would claim the conference title, and three would receive at-large bids. The Big Ten would also claim three, leaving the seventh and final spot for the Cougars.
Bottom line: The chase for a berth in the CFP at-large pool is a math game.
Right now, the Cougars are staring at quantum physics. With a few advantageous results in coming weeks, the process could morph into calculus.
That’s probably the best they can hope for.
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