After 11 weeks of play, the sample size is large enough to separate the winners from losers on the field and in the casinos.
There’s a distinctly Western vibe to the collection of Power Four teams that have rewarded the betting public most frequently.
(Records against the spread courtesy of teamrankings.com.)
Indiana: 8-2
Arizona State: 7-2
Brigham Young: 7-2
Colorado: 7-2
South Carolina: 7-2
That said, the region is well represented on the list of teams that have performed the worst against the point spread:
Arizona: 1-8
Georgia: 2-7
Oregon State: 2-7
Purdue: 2-7
Florida State: 2-7-1
NC State: 2-7-1
Stanford: 2-6-1
North Carolina: 2-6-1
For the most part, performance against the spread tracks with showing on the scoreboard. Teams that have produced upside surprises cover more often; the downside disappointments do not.
And there has been a fair amount of both across the region.
To the picks …
Last week: 1-6
Season: 51-41-1
Five-star special: 5-6
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com
(All times Pacific)
UCLA (+4) at Washington
Kickoff: Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox
Comment: Enormous game for the Huskies (5-5), who need another victory to become bowl-eligible and finish the season at Oregon. Oddly, the preparation edge goes to UCLA, which had a full week to get ready — the Bruins played last Friday — and not to Washington, which made a long trip to Penn State and has condensed recovery time. Also, the Bruins are hot; and the Huskies are not. Pick: UCLA
Houston (+1.5) at Arizona
Kickoff: Friday at 7:15 p.m. on FS1
Comment: Did the Wildcats make the most of their break, or will we see the same ineptitude on display two weeks ago at UCF? The Cougars started slowly under new coach Willie Fritz but are warming — the opposite trajectory of Arizona — and recently won at TCU. Pick: Houston
Utah (+11.5) at Colorado
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox
Comment: The Buffaloes have won three in a row and possess a solid defense for the first time in years. The Utes will start Isaac Wilson at quarterback following season-ending injuries to both Cam Rising and Brandon Rose. Hard to believe Wilson will have much confidence. Also hard to believe the Utes are double-digit underdogs against CU. But here we are. Pick: Colorado
Syracuse (+8.5) at Cal
Kickoff: 12 p.m. on The CW
Comment: Circumstances favor the Bears, who had an extra day to prepare while Syracuse is on the road for a second consecutive week. Motivation favors Cal, as well, with a bowl berth at stake. Even so, we are surprised the line has grown from the opening number (Cal -7) to the current size. Pick: Syracuse
Oregon State (-4) at Air Force
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: The Beavers are reeling — they haven’t won since early October — while Air Force is showing signs of life following a lengthy losing streak. (The Falcons beat Fresno State last week.) Also, the very last thing a struggling team wants to deal with is the triple option. It’s akin to drinking milk on a damn hot day. Pick: Air Force
Arizona State (+9) at Kansas State
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Sun Devils blasted past expectations weeks ago and are playing with house money twice over. Tailback Cam Skattebo is expected to play after missing a week due to injury. His presence greatly enhances ASU’s prospects for improving its mark against the spread to 8-2, even if the Devils are a few points short on the scoreboard. Pick: Arizona State
Boise State (-13.5) at San Jose State
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: The Broncos are starting to look bored as they roll through the Mountain West and take aim at the College Football Playoff. SJSU has enough playmakers to stay competitive throughout as long as the offensive line holds up and the defense contains Ashton Jeanty before he gets to the second level. Pick: San Jose State
Oregon (-14) at Wisconsin
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: The Ducks have covered on each of their two previous trips across the Rockies (to Purdue and Michigan), and there’s no sign of a slowdown against an opponent that has lost two in a row and struggles to score. Precisely because those 14 points look too good to be true, we are wary. Pick: Wisconsin
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Kansas (+3) at Brigham Young
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The line has dropped precipitously — it opened at Kansas +7 — and we wonder if the money flow is based on the likelihood of the Cougars suffering a post-Holy War letdown or the recent signs of life in Lawrence, where KU just beat Iowa State. Or maybe it’s both. Pick: Kansas
Straight-up winners: UCLA, Houston, Colorado, Cal, Air Force, Kansas State, Boise State, Oregon and BYU
Five-star special: Air Force. This pick is much more about Oregon State, which looks beaten and demoralized — not to mention inept on offense — than about the Falcons.
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