The game of the week will unfold in Columbus, where No. 2 Ohio State hosts No. 5 Indiana with a spot in the Big Ten championship game (against Oregon) at stake.
But the most interesting game — the game with the potential to cause the greatest amount of havoc — is scheduled for Yankee Stadium, where undefeated Army tangles with one-loss Notre Dame.
A loss likely would eliminate the sixth-ranked Irish from the College Football Playoff race, but that’s just the tip of the chaos an Army upset could cause.
The Black Knights would be one victory (in the American Conference championship game) from an undefeated record when the CFP committee gathers Dec. 7-8 to select and seed the 12-team field.
Our wormhole of maximum mayhem goes something like this:
The committee is forced into two choices:
— Select either undefeated Army or one-loss Boise State, a politically fraught move because of the perception the CFP is merely protecting the heavyweight conferences at the expense of the sport’s little guys.
Army is America’s team, after all, while the only blemish on Boise State’s resume would be a three-point loss at Oregon.
— Select undefeated Army and one-loss Boise State at the expense of an at-large team from the SEC or Big Ten with multiple losses or the multi-loss champion of the Big 12 or ACC.
(The CFP field features five conference champions and seven at-large teams, with everything dependent on the final rankings. The committee can manipulate the order of teams to generate any outcome it wants.)
In the binary choice outlined above, our strong suspicion is that Boise State would be left out — and if not the Broncos, then the Black Knights.
The CFP would want to avoid at all costs incurring the wrath of the Power Four.
But it would be fascinating theatre to see the committee squirm.
To the picks …
Last week: 6-3
Season: 57-44-1
Five-star special: 6-6
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com
(All times Pacific)
Indiana (+13.5) at Ohio State
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox
Comment: Did the oddsmakers set a huge number hoping to draw money on Indiana while believing the real value is with the Buckeyes? That’s our hunch. The plucky Hoosiers have been terrific, but this is an enormous jump in stakes, environment and personnel. Don’t be fooled by the big number. Pick: Ohio State
Arizona (+11.5) at TCU
Kickoff: 12 p.m. on ESPN+
Comment: The transitive property of college football suggests a tight game given that Houston beat TCU in Fort Worth and Arizona just beat Houston. There’s more to it, of course, including the Wildcats’ poor showings on the road in recent games and TCU’s unpredictable play everywhere. Pick: Arizona
Colorado (-2.5) at Kansas
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The line seems too narrow given that Colorado is 8-2 and Kansas is 4-6, but the hosts are a popular pick with the betting public after beating Iowa State and Brigham Young in back-to-back weeks. We think a correction is coming, courtesy of the Buffaloes’ much-improved pass rush. This won’t be close in the fourth quarter. Pick: Colorado
Brigham Young (+3) at Arizona State
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: After winning at Kansas State, the Sun Devils are no longer undervalued. But the betting line finally catching up to their performance doesn’t mean it’s a bad line. All the momentum is with ASU. Also, don’t discount the possibility that BYU maxed out on performance and emotion over the course of nine weeks and is, quite simply, out of gas. Pick: Arizona State
Stanford (+14.5) at Cal
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on the ACC Network
Comment: So much of the college football wagering machinery is based on the betting public placing too much emphasis on a team’s most recent performance. But it was impossible to watch the Bears’ loss to Syracuse and believe they are capable of beating anyone by two touchdowns. This is either the easiest call on the board or we are completely misreading the situation. Pick: Stanford
Washington State (+12.5) at Oregon State
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on The CW
Comment: The de facto Pac-12 championship game hinges on WSU contributing to its own demise with turnovers, drive-killing penalties and mistakes on special teams. Because if the Cougars are remotely efficient and careful with the ball, they should be firmly in control when the fourth quarter begins. Pick: Washington State
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Army (+14.5) vs. Notre Dame
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on NBC
Comment: A century ago, Grantland Rice crafted the most famous paragraph in the history of American sports journalism after Notre Dame beat Army 13-7 at the Polo Grounds. (“Outlined against a blue, gray October sky the Four Horsemen rode again. In dramatic lore they are known as famine, pestilence, destruction and death. These are only aliases. Their real names are: Stuhldreher, Miller, Crowley and Layden. “) The 2024 meeting in Yankee Stadium won’t be as close. The Irish are simply too big and strong on the lines of scrimmage. Pick: Notre Dame
USC (-4.5) at UCLA
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: A must-win game for the Bruins and awfully close to a must-win for the Trojans, as well. Sure, the Hotline would rather have USC’s roster, but we’d rather have UCLA’s grit. And if rookie coach DeShaun Foster beats $10 million-a-year man Lincoln Riley, USC stakeholders might have a collective meltdown. Pick: UCLA
Iowa State (-7.5) at Utah
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on Fox
Comment: We continue to believe the Utes will stop their slide, yet they keep plunging deeper into an abyss rooted in inept offense and an exhausted defense. Given that they finish the regular season on the road, there’s a non-zero chance that this turns out to be Kyle Whittingham’s final home game — that he retires this winter. Pick: Utah
Straight-up winners: Ohio State, TCU, Colorado, ASU, Stanford, Washington State, Notre Dame, UCLA and Iowa State
Five-star special: Stanford. We typically favor double-digit underdogs in rivalry games. Plus, Cal is fresh off a dismal performance and always worth avoiding as a home favorite.
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