The debates are over, the ads have run their course, and it’s Election Day in California.
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Today is “Super Tuesday,” the biggest primary election date in the country. Overall, 15 states including California will be voting for president, Congress, local races and other contests. In many cases, including the presidential race, the winners will go on to face each other in the November general election.
In California, turnout so far has been low in early voting and mail-in voting. The reason? Lack of suspense. At the top of the ticket, President Joe Biden faces only token opposition in the Democratic primary, and his main challenger, Republican Donald Trump, has a substantial lead in racking up delegates over former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in the Republican primary.
So this year isn’t as exciting as the 2008 battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, or the 2016 showdown between Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in the Republican primary.
But California isn’t without some drama. Here are five things to watch for tonight after voting ends at 8 p.m. and as the results begin to roll in:
1) Will Steve Garvey make the Top Two?
In an otherwise ho-hum election nationwide, California’s Senate contest is shaping up as a big draw.
“The most interesting contest? Can Steve Garvey can be propelled into the November top-two election?” said Larry Sabato, founder and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “I can’t name a single state’s presidential contest that matters a hill of beans. We already know the major party presidential nominees, and we have known them since the New Hampshire primary.”
After former California Sen. Dianne Feinstein died in September, Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed former labor leader and University of California regent Laphonza Butler to fill the seat. But Butler will step down after this November’s election.
Polls show U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, a Los Angeles Democrat who led impeachment efforts against Trump, leading the race, with Republican Garvey, a former first baseman for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, locked in a battle for second place with U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, a Democrat from Irvine. Barbara Lee, a longtime Democratic congresswoman from Oakland, trails in fourth.
Under California’s top-two primary rules, voters can cross party lines to cast a ballot in the race and the top two finishers face off in the November general election. Schiff, who has raised the most money, has run TV ads in recent weeks trumpeting Garvey’s two votes for Trump. His goal, analysts say, is to help Garvey finish in the top two instead of Porter, who would give Schiff a general-election battle.
From Clockwise: Former baseball player Steve Garvey, Rep., Rep. Barbara Lee of California’s 12th House District, Rep. Adam Schiff of California’s 30th House District and Katie Porter of California’s 47th House District and are running for Senate in the 2024 election. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes, File)
Democrats outnumber registered Republicans 47% to 24% in California — with 22% of voters “no party preference.” In such a blue state, Schiff will be the overwhelming favorite in November if he faces Garvey. No Republican has won statewide office in California since 2006.
“Garvey would be easy to beat,” said Jack Pitney, a professor of political science at Claremont McKenna College. “Not only is he a conservative Republican in a Democratic state, but he has not demonstrated a firm grasp of the issues. A race against Porter would be tougher, and would burn money that could go to other Democratic causes.”
Porter has run a spirited, reasonably well-funded campaign, and could squeak into the final two. That would cause Democratic donors from across the nation to pour millions of dollars into the race, Pitney noted, money that some some party officials privately fear could be better spent defending other Democratic seats in close races in Montana, Ohio and Nevada as Democrats struggle to keep their 51-49 Senate majority.
2) Who will win Silicon Valley’s coveted House seat?
A rare prize is on the ballot today: A congressional seat representing Silicon Valley. Anna Eshoo, the incumbent Democrat first elected in 1992, is retiring. The district, which runs from Pacifica down through Palo Alto and includes parts of San Jose, voted for President Biden in 2020 by a lopsided 54-point margin. So it is likely to be won by a Democrat and stay in that person’s hands for a while.
Eleven candidates are running, including two Democratic veterans: Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo, and Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian, who is also a former Palo Alto mayor, state senator and state Assemblyman. But there are other significant challengers, including Democrats Peter Dixon, a former software executive and Marine officer who has raised the most money; Assemblyman Evan Low, D-Cupertino; and Julie Lythcott-Haims, a Harvard-trained lawyer, former Stanford University dean and current member of the Palo Alto City Council.
“This race is a hotspot,” said Larry Gerston, a professor emeritus of political science at San Jose State University. “There is no incumbent, and there are at least four or five well-funded, seasoned candidates.”
Ten of the eleven candidates for California’s 16th Congressional District, top row, from left, Sam Liccardo, Joe Simitian, Peter Dixon, Evan Low, and Julie Lythcott-Haims, bottom row, from left, Rishi Kumar, Greg Tanaka, Joby Bernstein, Peter Ohtaki, and Ahmed Mostafa. (courtesy photos)
3) Are California voters about to get tougher on crime and drugs?
Amid high-profile robberies at retail stores, attacks on elderly Asian residents and growing fentanyl deaths, California voters will have the option Tuesday of taking a tougher stance on crime and drug overdoses. In San Francisco, voters will decide two measures supported by embattled Mayor London Breed: Proposition E, which would expand police powers to use surveillance cameras, drones and vehicle pursuits, and Proposition F, which would require single adults receiving county welfare benefits who are suspected drug users to be tested for drugs, and enroll in treatment programs if they test positive.
In Los Angeles County, 11 people are challenging District Attorney George Gascon, a progressive who has survived two recall attempts since taking office in 2020. Opponents are critical of him because he does not seek cash bail for misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies, and does not prosecute juveniles as adults.
A San Francisco Police Department officer speaks to two people while working in the Tenderloin district Friday, March 1, 2024, in San Francisco. Voters in San Francisco will weigh in on a pair of public safety measures on the Tuesday, March 5, ballot that reflect frustration over crime and drug use in the politically liberal city, including a proposal to compel treatment for adults who receive cash welfare benefits if they are using illegal drugs. The other ballot measure would expand police powers, granting city officers greater leeway to pursue suspects in vehicles, authorize police use of drones and surveillance cameras and reduce paperwork requirements including in use-of-force cases. (AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)
4) Will Nikki Haley drop out?
So far, Trump has won nine of 10 contests, including the Missouri, Michigan and Idaho caucuses on Saturday. As of Monday, he held a commanding 244-43 lead in delegates. On Tuesday, another 865 Republican delegates will be allocated. To win the Republican presidential nomination, a candidate must collect 1,215.
Haley, a former United Nations ambassador, is hoping for a win in Virginia. But Trump has the momentum and this week may be her last stand. She has only committed to staying in the race through Tuesday, and a blowout loss could be the end.
“Candidates drop out when their donors tell them to,” Sabato said. “Haley will likely lose all or almost all the contests on Super Tuesday. I doubt her donors will support her campaign for much longer.”
Republican presidential candidate former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks at a campaign event in South Burlington, Vt., Sunday, March 3, 2024. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
5) Who will win a key Central Valley race that could decide control of Congress?
California’s 22nd Congressional District runs from Hanford to Bakersfield in the San Joaquin Valley. President Biden won it by 13 points in 2020. But its congressman is Republican dairy farmer David Valadao. Clinging to the blue district, Valadao was one of only 10 House Republicans to vote to impeach Trump. His main opponent Tuesday is Democrat Rudy Salas, a former state assemblyman whom he narrowly beat in 2022.
California’s 22nd Congressional District candidates incumbent David Valadao and Assemblyman Rudy Salas Jr. (AP Photo)
Complicating things, another Democrat, state Sen. Melissa Hurtado, also jumped in, as did another Republican, Trump loyalist and cattle rancher Chris Mathys, whom Valadao barely beat in the 2022 primary. Democrats worry Hurtado could take away votes from Salas, giving the top two spots to Republicans in a seat Democrats need badly to win to regain control of the House. But if Mathys wins and faces Salas, he may be too conservative for the district.
