A margin for error.
Something the Faithful probably never anticipated in late November when the reigning NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles were 10-1 and the 49ers were 8-3.
Yet here we are, after the division rival Seattle Seahawks stole a 20-17 win Monday from a reeling Eagles team that is suddenly 10-4.
Both No. 2 seeded Dallas and No. 5 Philadelphia are a game behind the 49ers (11-3). The 49ers beat both teams handily so in a tiebreaker sense, life is good.
A month ago, who would have considered the 49ers could wrap up their bye and home-field advantage by winning two of the last three games?
If the 49ers, winners of six straight, beat the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas night and follow that up with a road win against the currently 4-10 Washington Commanders, their home finale against the Los Angeles Rams becomes moot.
Imagine that. The top seed and home field wrapped up before they even take the field against the Rams.
It would take a considerable fade by the 49ers to give up the bye and home-field advantage, based on how well they’ve played over the past five games.
Here is how things look heading into Week 16:
IN PLAYOFF POSITION
1. 49ers (11-3): Now comes the balancing act — winning enough to retain the top seed and the bye while at the same time making sure their top players are as healthy and as fine-tuned as possible for the postseason. If there’s anything we learned from the Week 8 game against Cincinnati, the 49ers are going to need that first-round bye.
Last three games: vs. Baltimore (11-3), at Washington (4-10), vs. L.A. Rams (7-7)
2. Dallas (10-4): The Cowboys retained the No. 2 seed despite getting blown out by Buffalo after the Eagles lost to Seattle. Face it, the Cowboys will be suspect until the moment they do something above and beyond. Hard to remember when the last time that happened.
Last three games: at Miami (10-4), vs. Detroit (10-4), at Washington (4-10)
3. Detroit (10-4): Any thoughts that the Lions would back into a division championship were erased when they completely ambushed a Denver team that came in playing well — especially on defense. Jared Goff threw five touchdown passes, Detroit rushed for 185 yards and averaged 7.0 yards per play overall.
Last three games: at Minnesota (7-7), at Dallas (10-4), vs. Minnesota (7-7)
4. Tampa Bay (7-7): With home games against the Jaguars (potentially without Trevor Lawrence) and Saints and with a season-ender at Carolina, it’s all set up for Baker Mayfield to thumb his nose at his critics and deliver a division title in the NFC South. Mayfield is coming off one of his best games — 381 yards and four touchdown passes in a win over contending Green Bay.
Last three games: vs. Jacksonville (8-6), vs. New Orleans (7-7), at Carolina (2-12)
5. Philadelphia (10-4): Don’t discount the Eagles winding up winners in the NFC East based on how the schedule has played out. The division hasn’t had a back-to-back champion since 2005. Philly is a faint copy of what it was last year, but it’s not exactly a day off for whoever face the Eagles in the playoffs.
Last three games: vs. N.Y. Giants (6-8), vs. Arizona (3-11), at N.Y. Giants (6-8)
6. Minnesota (7-7): The Vikings suffered a tough overtime loss to Cincinnati, but it’s been impressive the way Kevin O’Connell has held this team together after the loss of Kirk Cousins, first with Joshua Dobbs and then Nick Mullens. He may be doing a better coaching job this year than when Minnesota was 13-4 a year ago.
Last three games: vs. Detroit (10-4), vs. Green Bay (6-8), at Detroit (10-4)
7. L.A. Rams (7-7): The Rams are a different team with Kyren Robinson chewing up yardage on the ground. With 953 yards and having missed four games, he’d be giving Christian McCaffrey a run for the rushing title had it not been for his stint on injured reserve. As it is, Robinson may run the Rams into the postseason, and they’ll be dangerous.
Last three games: vs. New Orleans (7-7), at N.Y. Giants (6-8), at 49ers (11-3)
STILL IN THE HUNT
8. Seattle (7-7): Pretty heroic for the Seahawks to come back and beat Philadelphia despite getting pushed around in the first half. Pete Carroll is the best. How can anyone be that optimistic and energetic at 72? The Seahawks have always followed his lead though.
Last three games: at Tennessee (5-9), vs. Pittsburgh (7-7), at Arizona (3-11)
Derek Carr (4) has the Saints in position to make the playoffs with a 7-7 record and three games to play. A.P. Photo
9. New Orleans (7-7): It’s going to be another long offseason for Derek Carr if the Saints don’t finish strong and win their division. It took a few years before some of the Raiders fan base began to separate from the Carr supporters. It has already happened in New Orleans.
Last three games: at L.A. Rams (7-7), at Tampa Bay (7-7), vs. Atlanta (6-8)
10. Atlanta (6-8): The Falcons seemed destined for double-digit losses from the start and then went through the season not knowing it. Desmond Ridder’s propensity to turn it over in the red zone will have Atlanta searching for again in the offseason.
Last three games: vs. Indianapolis (8-6), at Chicago (5-9), at New Orleans (7-7)
11. Green Bay (6-8): It’s within the Packers’ power to win their last three game and end up with a winning record. Coming up well short in a key battle against Tampa Bay was not a good sign, however. I like what they have going forward in Jordan Love at quarterback.
Last three games: at Carolina (2-12), at Minnesota (7-7), vs. Chicago (5-9)
JOCKEYING FOR DRAFT POSITION
12. N.Y. Giants (5-9), 13. Chicago (5-9), 14. Washington (4-10), 15. Arizona (4-11), 16. Carolina (2-12)
SCOPING THE AFC
If I’m the Chargers, I’m looking hard at Miami offensive coordinator Frank Smith as the new head coach. He has been schooled in offensive football by Sean Payton in New Orleans and Jon Gruden in Oakland as well as learning the Kyle Shanahan system through Mike McDaniel with the Dolphins. If Pittsburgh ends up with the first losing season under Mike Tomlin, could Tomlin and Bill Belichick both be out on Black Monday?
Current seeding for postseason
1. Baltimore (11-3), 2. Miami (10-4), 3. Kansas City (9-5), 4. Jacksonville (8-6), 5. Cleveland (9-5), 6. Cincinnati (8-6), 7. Indianapolis (8-6)
Outside looking in
8. Houston (8-6), 9. Buffalo (8-6), 10. Pittsburgh (7-7), 11. Denver (7-7), 12. Las Vegas (6-8), 13. L.A. Chargers (5-9), 14. Tennessee (5-9), 15. N.Y. Jets (5-9), 16. New England (3-11)
