As the NFL’s lone two 11-3 teams standing, the 49ers’ and Ravens’ clash on Christmas Day should be a gift for football fans.
But the Ravens seem to think the point spread is a lump of coal and are intent on making it bulletin board material.
In comments this week, via ESPN’s Jamison Hensley, the Ravens expressed defiance in the face of the point spread that lists San Francisco as 5.5-point favorites in Levi’s Stadium.
“I don’t want them to pick us,” Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson said. “I like being the underdog. I believe we play better when we’re doubted and [when] people aren’t choosing us to win the game. I feel like we play better all the time, so just do it all the way to February. That’s all I ask.”
It’s not surprising that the 49ers would be favored at home, but 5.5 is a substantial mark. Baltimore has only been an underdog once this season, when it upset the Bengals in Cincinnati.
Ravens head coach John Harbaugh that the point spread was mentioned this week in team meetings.
“We feel a little disrespected by that,” Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton said. “I feel like we are the best team in the league, and we have an opportunity in front of the country to show it.”
The Niners are 8-6 against the spread this season. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 9-5 against the spread. The over-under is set at 46.5.
Monday’s matchup also represents a meeting of the top two MVP contenders in Jackson and Brock Purdy. Entering this week, FanDuel Sportsbook lists Purdy as the favorite, with -200 odds, and Jackson with the second-shortest odds (+500).
Purdy, 23, has led a loaded Niners offense with precision and bravado. His 29 passing touchdowns lead the NFL, as do his advanced metrics like yards per attempt, air yards per attempt and QBR. His 119 passer rating ranks fifth all-time in a single season, making him one of the most efficient quarterbacks ever.
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Jackson’s stats don’t measure up to Purdy’s but he has much less potent weapons around him. Go-to tight end Mark Andrews is in danger of missing the rest of the season and starting running back JK Dobbins tore his Achilles before his breakout replacement, Keaton Mitchell, tore his ACL. That has left Jackson with rookie Zay Flowers and veteran Odell Beckham Jr. as his main skill player options.
Despite his beleaguered supporting cast, Jackson has 17 passing touchdowns (plus five rushing) and seven interceptions. He averages 274.7 scrimmage yards per game, which is less than Purdy’s average.
Meanwhile, Purdy has another MVP candidate on his own offense: Christian McCaffrey, the NFL’s leading rusher this season by more than 300 yards, has the fifth-shortest odds on FanDuel at +1200.
Jackson is 11-1-1 in his career as an underdog. Purdy, who’s making his 20th career start, has been favored in every game as a pro according to ESPN. Despite Baltimore’s consternation, that won’t change on Monday night.
