SANTA CLARA — The 49ers were last seen in Washington doing celebratory belly slides on FedEx Field’s sludge and proclaiming themselves “2019 Mud Bowl Champions.”
That was a few months before they’d become NFC champions. They return Sunday with championship aspirations, more so of the Super Bowl variety, but a NFC title would suffice along the way.
Conditions should be chilly but not rainy or muddy when the 49ers (11-4) face the Commanders (4-11) in the penultimate game of the regular season.
It could be the 49ers’ final road game until Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas on Feb. 11. Or maybe not. Monday night’s 33-19 humbling loss to the Baltimore Ravens narrowed the 49ers’ window to securing the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed, but that is still very viable and will be detailed below in this weekly game preview.
TOP STORYLINES
1. HEALTH UPDATES: None of Monday night’s injuries appeared too serious, but they do command further attention when they involve quarterback Brock Purdy (shoulder stinger) and his blindside protectors, left tackle Trent Williams (groin), left guard Aaron Banks (toe) and backup tackle Jaylon Moore (concussion). Purdy’s mental makeup also will be scrutinized as he comes off his first-career four-interception game.
2. SPOILER ALERT: The Commanders nearly avoided a sixth straight loss Saturday, when they battled back from a 20-0 deficit at the New York Jets and even took a fourth-quarter lead before losing on a last-seconds field goal. Coach Ron Rivera’s club is going down fighting, and last season’s home finale saw them upend the playoff-bound Cowboys. Then again, they’re allowing a NFL-high 30.2 points per game, and coach Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers are scoring at the NFL’s third-highest clip (29.6 points per game).
3. CHASE’S RETURN: Defensive end Chase Young lost Monday night for the first time since the 49ers traded for him from the Commanders, for a third-round draft pick. Young, the Commanders’ 2020 No. 2 overall draft pick, has provided the best presence opposite Nick Bosa in years, just as the 49ers hoped in reuniting those Ohio State teammates. Young has just 2 ½ sacks and five quarterback hits in seven games with the 49ers, and a breakout game seems like it’s coming.
4. QUARTERBACK SWITCH: Sam Howell used this season to dig in as Washington’s starting quarterback, until he got benched for Jacoby Brissett in back-to-back games. Howell has thrown a NFL-high 17 interceptions, and he’s completed just 40.8 percent of his passes the last three games.
5. DEFENSE’S AURA: Yielding 33 points to the Ravens was somewhat understandable (see; five interceptions), but the 49ers allowed points on seven straight drives for the first time since 2005. That came after the 49ers gave up 29 points to Arizona the previous game, their last road game. That defense needs to tighten up for the playoffs, even if the per-game stats are impressive this season: 17.8 points (No. 2 in NFL), 90.3 rushing yards (No. 3) and 312.3 total yards (No. 11).
PLAYOFF PICTURE
If the 49ers rebound to hand the Commanders their seventh straight loss, then the No. 1 seed could be on the charter flight home to Santa Clara, but only if the Detroit Lions (11-4) lose Saturday at the Dallas Cowboys (10-5) coupled with an upset loss by the Philadelphia Eagles (11-4) on Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals (3-12).
Otherwise, the NFC West-champion 49ers will have to wait until Week 18, where they’ll encounter a red-hot Rams team at Levi’s Stadium on either Saturday or Sunday, Jan. 6 or 7. The Rams (8-7) have won 5-of-6 since their bye, with the only loss coming in 37-31 fashion at the Ravens. Other Week 18 games of note: the Lions host the Vikings, the Eagles are at the Giants, the Cowboys are at the Commanders.
LAST MEETING
The 49ers won 37-20 at Levi’s Stadium last season on Christmas Eve, as the Commanders benched quarterback Taylor Heinicke for Carson Wentz. It was Purdy’s second home start, and he delivered two touchdown passes to George Kittle (six catches, 120 yards). Kittle, by the way, had 126 yards Monday night for his 17th career 100-yard game, matching Gene Washington for the 49ers’ third-most behind Jerry Rice (66) and Terrell Owens (25).
SERIES HISTORY
The 49ers lead 22-12-1. They are 4-2 at FedEx Field, including a 26-24 loss in 2017 in Shanahan’s first year as coach, and the 2019 shutout win.
INJURY WATCH
49ers
QB Brock Purdy (shoulder stinger)
LT Trent Williams (groin)
LG Aaron Banks (toe)
DT Arik Armstead (foot, knee)
CB Ambry Thomas (hamstring)
RB Elijah Mitchell (knee)
LB Oren Burks (knee)
TE Ross Dwelley (ankle)
Commanders
RB Brian Robinson (knee)
RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (ankle)
OT Charles Leno (calf)
C Tyler Larsen (knee)
RT Andrew Wylie (elbow)
CB Benjamin St-Juste (concussion)
MILESTONE WATCH
— Purdy’s 4,050 passing yards leave him 229 yards from breaking Jeff Garcia’s single-season franchise record (4,278 in 2000) and 121 shy of passing Steve Young for second-most (4,170; 1998).
— Christian McCaffrey’s 21 touchdowns are two shy of Jerry Rice’s single-season franchise record (1987) and they’re tied for the NFL lead with ex-49er Raheem Mostert (Miami Dolphins).
— McCaffrey is poised to go wire-to-wire as the NFL’s rushing leader and win his first single-season title, and the first for the 49ers since Joe Perry in 1953 and ‘54. McCaffrey (1,395 yards) has a sizeable lead over the Rams’ Kyren Williams (1,057), the Bills’ James Cook (1,038) and the Dolphins’ Mostert (1,012).
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WEATHER FORECAST
Mostly sunny skies with a high of 50 degrees, 5 mph winds and a 6-percent chance of rain, according to weather.com
BETTING LINE
The 49ers are favored by 13 ½ points, matching their largest this season (which they failed to cover in a 28-16 home win over Seattle on Dec. 10. The over/under line is 48 ½ points, according to VegasInsider.com
Prediction: 49ers 31, Commanders 14
