Warriors beat writer Danny Emerman shares his thoughts on the NBA offseason and beyond
Steph Curry’s boundless 3-point audacity changed the point guard position. Ushering in a new ilk of shoot-first, geometry-shifting guards like Trae Young and Damian Lillard, Curry and his 3-point revolution helped make the traditional point guard extinct (Chris Paul: the last of his kind).
The next frontier is here, and it might just leave players like Curry behind.
There are essentially 30 primary creators — one on each team. Players like Luka Doncic may not be considered point guards, but they bring the ball up most often and dictate offense in the half court. Based on some quick back-of-the-napkin math, Curry is one of just 12 lead playmakers 6-foot-3 or shorter.
That’s right: Nearly a third of the league has jumbo-sized lead playmakers.
With the emphasis on shooting 3s, teams have adjusted by trying to get as much size and versatility on the court. Defensively, teams want to switch as much as they can to close out on shooters around the arc.
That leaves smaller players inherently vulnerable to mismatches. The defending champion Celtics, for instance, feasted on opposing slighter guards like Tyler Herro, Kyrie Irving, Andrew Nembhard, and Darius Garland. Boston is the model: Their starting lineup has no one shorter than 6-foot-4, and even backcourt mates Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are capable of posting up or otherwise attacking mismatches.
The trend is going to continue. Jalen Brunson (fifth place) was the last “small” guard — 6-foot-3 or shorter — to finish in the top-five in MVP voting since Curry in 2020-21. Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham and Devin Carter were the only “small” guards selected in the 2024 NBA Draft lottery.
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Size at all positions is becoming a premium again. Point guards are at risk of getting squeezed out.
Scorers as dynamic as Curry and prime Lillard will be insulated to the change. What they provide on offense vastly outweighs what they give up defensively in switches. But as teams get bigger and bigger, that equation is going to shift.
The emphasis will be even greater on holding up defensively. Players like Trae Young and Brunson were never going to be defensive stoppers, but they’re only going to get picked on more as teams put them on islands in the wrong weight classes.
The NBA is always evolving. The next development is here, and it’s bigger.
Valkyries update
General manager Ohemaa Nyanin told me on Sept. 9 that she’s “pretty close” to hiring a head coach for Golden State’s WNBA team, so an announcement could come any day now.
“I’m resolute in the candidates that we’ve interviewed,’ Nyanin said.
The Valkyries got more external interest in the head coaching position than Nyanin initially expected, so the process continued as the GM made connections with more candidates than anticipated.
Since the 2024 WNBA playoffs begin today, I think it’s possible the Valkyries hold off on announcing a hire until after the finals in mid-October. But the expansion team is making progress toward its inaugural season.
Embiid’s time is now
The 76ers agreed to a three-year, $192.9 million contract extension with superstar center Joel Embiid.
Embiid won MVP in 2023, but injuries limited him to 39 games last year. When it mattered most for Team USA in Paris, against Nikola Jokic and Serbia in the semifinal round, Embiid stepped up.
But that was by far the biggest game Embiid has played in his career.
There have been 36 MVPs in NBA history (excluding ABA winners).
A list of MVPs to never win a championship: Joel Embiid, Charles Barkley, Steve Nash, Karl Malone, James Harden, Allen Iverson, Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook
MVPs to never reach the Finals: Joel Embiid, Derrick Rose, Steve Nash
MVPs to never get out of the second round: Joel Embiid
Philadelphia brought in Paul George as Embiid’s wingman, giving him the best supporting cast of his career. Entering his ninth playing season, Embiid is out of excuses. He’s got to stay on the court and at least get himself off that last, lonely list.
Congratulations to Woj
Bovada released betting odds for who ESPN will hire to replace Adrian Wojnarowski — the legendary reporter who revolutionized NBA journalism — with Shams Charania as the favorite.
What in the Walter Cronkite are we doing here?
2024 Anticipated Watch All-Stars
In no particular order: The players I’m most excited to watch this season, tiered.
Can’t-look-away car crashes >> Jordan Poole, James Harden, Ben Simmons, Bradley Beal
Old-school classics >> DeMar DeRozan, Chris Paul
The Tyson Zone (© Bill Simmons) >> Draymond Green, Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook, Cam Thomas
Rookies to keep an eye on >> Bub Carrington, Reed Sheppard, Stephon Castle, Matas Buzelis
Can they make a leap? >> Jonathan Kuminga, Evan Mobley, Jalen Green
Can they make THE leap? >> Paolo Banchero, Desmond Bane, Alperen Sengun, Jalen Williams
Hipster picks >> Tyrese Haliburton, Jalen Brunson, Cade Cunningham, Scottie Barnes, Naz Reid
Aesthetic wonders >> Ja Morant, Victor Wembanyama, Anthony Edwards, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Celtics, Zion Williamson
All-time players we’re lucky to watch >> LeBron James, Steph Curry, Nikola Jokic
