TAMPA, Fla. – Christian McCaffrey’s season debut Sunday has the 49ers hoping he’ll spark playoff runs, just as he did the previous two seasons.
The déjà vu doesn’t stop there.
The 49ers are coming off their Week 9 bye and seeking a win in Florida. Sound familiar? Such was the case last year, when they won in Jacksonville to snap a three-game skid and launch a Super Bowl run.
The déjà vu doesn’t stop there.
This season, the Bucs started 3-1, lost four of their next five, then next face the 49ers on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. Last season, the Bucs started 3-1, lost four of their next five, then fell to the 49ers, 27-14 at Levi’s Stadium.
“Obviously it wasn’t the start we would have anticipated or hoped for, but we have to live with that,” linebacker Fred Warner said. “We’re a 4-4 football team right now. We have nine games to see how we want to be the rest of the season.”
Such playoff pushes are an annual ritual under coach Kyle Shanahan tracing to the 2019 season, which opened … here, when defensive back Nick Bosa made his NFL debut on a tender ankle and the 49ers launched an 8-0 start.
In this first game back in Tampa, the 49ers may need Bosa to battle through a hip injury and have their defense again dictate a victory. Then again, their offense could revert to 2023 high-scoring form with McCaffrey’s long-awaited season debut.
Here are five ways to beat the Bucs for a – déjà vu — third straight season:
1. MAKE ROOM FOR CMC
Two months after McCaffrey figured to start his season, the 49ers can hand him the ball (or throw it to him) and spruce up their touchdown production. His Achilles tendinitis subsided enough for this past week’s re-entry to practice, and this game offers his first test at full-speed cuts amid full-contact action.
Speaking of which, rookie rusher Isaac Guerendo pointed to McCaffrey’s change-of-direction footwork as something to model. “The efficiency in and out of cuts that he has is like no one else,” Guerendo said.
Added run-game coordinator Christ Foerster: “It’s like all of a sudden it’s just ‘bam’ and he hits the hole right in time, perfect timing, perfect pacing of the play, catches some balls down the field and things like that. It’s nice.”
Aside from Brandon Aiyuk’s Oct. 20 exit to a knee injury, the 49ers’ offense is essentially at full strength, and that should enhance McCaffrey’s transition. “All hands on deck,” wide receiver Deebo Samuel said.
2. EXPLOIT FRESH LEGS
Not only do the 49ers have fresh legs, their opponent could be exhausted.
The Bucs’ defense played 85 snaps in Monday night’s overtime loss at Kansas City, where the Chiefs’ five scoring drives each consisted of at least 10 plays.
The Buccaneers’ injury report lists 13 players, and while wide receiver Mike Evans is the only one already ruled out, six are questionable, including wide receiver Jalen McMillan, and safeties Jordan Whitehead and Tykee Smith.
Extending offensive drives will be key for Brock Purdy & Co. The 49ers rank sixth in third-down efficiency (43.3%) but they coverted on just 2-of-11 situations in both their losses to Minnesota and Kansas City. Tampa Bay’s defense is 23rd on third-down stops, having allowed the Chiefs to convert 12-of-18 Monday.
The 49ers also must improve their fifth-worst red zone production, converting just 48.6% into touchdowns. McCaffrey could be the magic elixir there.
3. STOP BUCS’ RUSHERS
Injuries to wide receivers Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (leg) puts the onus on Tampa Bay’s two-prong rushing attack, although tight end Cade Otton and wide receiver Sterling Shepard came through in clutch action Monday at Kansas City.
Rookie Bucky Irving (5-10, 195 pounds) has run for a team-high 419 yards (5 yards per carry, no 100-yard games), and the 49ers also must be on the lookout for Rachaad White, whose open-field juke resulted in Talanoa Hufanga’s torn anterior cruciate ligament last November. White has 275 yards this season, but no more than 49 in any game.
Will the 49ers respond like they did so well last game against Dallas (56 yards, 19 carries, one score) or are they still susceptible on runs up the gut like Kansas City did the prior week (184 yards, 39 carries, four touchdowns)?
The 49ers, in trading for Khalil Davis on Tuesday, bolstered their interior line’s rotation behind Maliek Collins and Jordan Elliott; Davis and Collins previously played together in Houston. Thus, if the 49ers do stop the run, then the Bucs’ third-down offense must be stopped, and when it comes to pass coverage, covering Otton will be a major chore for the 49ers’ linebackers and safeties.
4. PROTECT THE BALL
The 49ers are 0-5 when Purdy gets intercepted at least twice in a game, and 6-8 overall when he’s been intercepted at least once.
Conversely, the Bucs have just five interceptions this season, and none in their three-game losing streak.
Still leading the Bucs’ defense is 13th-year veteran Lavonte David, a 34-year-old outside linebacker who has a team-high 64 tackles, three sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception.
Nose tackle Vita Vea, a Milpitas High product, sacked Patrick Mahomes twice Monday night and, on the season, has totaled five sacks, six quarterback hits and eight tackles for loss. “He’s definitely a guy that you’ve got to know where he is at every play, every snap,” Purdy said. “He’s very disruptive and a strong guy. He’s been like that for however long he has been playing. He’s always a problem.”
5. CONTAIN MAYFIELD
Baker Mayfield missed consecutive practices with a toe injury, as did wide receiver Shepard, but both are fully expected; Kyle Trask is Mayfield’s backup.
Mayfield leads the NFL with 23 touchdown passes, with at least one in each game this season. His ability to nearly propel the Bucs past the Chiefs, and do so without his top wide receivers, alerted the 49ers not to take him or the Bucs lightly.
Of course, Bosa’s first breakout game in the NFL came at Mayfield’s expense, but that was back in an October 2017 meeting, when Bosa collected two sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery against his college rival (Ohio State vs. Oklahoma).
Mayfield got sacked four times overall that 2017 Monday night game, and four teams in each of the Bucs’ losses to the 49ers the past two years. The Broncos sacked him seven times in the Bucs’ Week 3 home loss, but only nine sacks have ensued in the Bucs’ six games since then.
The 49ers beat Tampa Bay at Levi’s Stadium each of the previous two seasons, winning 35-7 in Brock Purdy’s 2022 starting debut against Tom Brady and claiming a 27-14 victory last Nov. 19. A third straight time? The 49ers could be charmed and heading into the NFC playoff race.
