Republican former baseball star Steve Garvey remains far behind the leading Democrats he’s challenging in California’s U.S. Senate race in fundraising but a new poll found him tied for second place for the March 5 primary in which the top two candidates will advance to compete for the seat in November.
“While Garvey hasn’t raised much, the ‘R’ next to his name and the familiarity that older Republican voters have with him may well be enough to carry him forward to November, perhaps with a vote total higher than any of the three Democratic members of Congress who are splitting the money and the vote within their party,” University of California-San Diego Political Science Prof. Thad Kousser said Thursday.
Garvey’s campaign was upbeat about the 2023 fundraising totals in the race he didn’t enter until October 10, when headlines were dominated by the Hamas attack on Israel and “with just a little over two holiday months left in the year.”
The star first baseman for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres in the 1970s and 1980s who lives in Palm Desert, raised $610,921 through Dec. 31, 2023. But Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff of Burbank raised $29.2 million, Katie Porter of Irvine $25.1 million and Barbara Lee of Oakland $4.4 million in 2023.
“In just two and a half months, the momentum and support for Steve Garvey’s campaign, along with its rocket-like rise in the polls demonstrates that he is resonating with Californians,” said Matt Shupe, spokesman for the Garvey campaign.
With about five weeks to go, fundraising reports showed Schiff well positioned with $34.9 million in the bank compared to $13.2 million for Porter, $816,000 for Lee and $308,000 for Garvey as of New Year’s Day.
Shupe said Garvey matched his total 2023 fundraising in January, and that “the dynamics of this race to beat Steve Garvey will only intensify the closer we get to Election Day.”
The Schiff and Lee campaigns had no immediate comment on the latest reports, while Porter’s campaign touted her commitment to shunning corporate funding.
“Katie Porter is the only elected official in this race who has never taken a single corporate PAC check, refuses donations from federal lobbyists, and swears off donations from Big Pharma, Big Bank, and Big Oil executives,” campaign spokeswoman Lindsay Reilly said. “There’s a clear difference in the records of each of the candidates in this race.”
Kousser called Porter’s fundraising “truly impressive” and said it will “ensure she remains the most significant threat to Adam Schiff’s candidacy.”
Garvey’s star status has helped him overcome a significant fundraising disadvantage to threaten Porter and Lee for second place in polls that Schiff has been consistently leading. A poll out Thursday by researchers at the University of Southern California, Cal State University Long Beach and Cal Poly Pomona found Garvey tied with Porter for second place, with Schiff well ahead and Lee trailing.
The California Elections and Policy Poll found Schiff leading the pack with support of 25% of likely voters, while Porter and Garvey were tied for second at 15% each and Lee was a distant fourth place at 7%. All the other candidates including Republicans Eric Early and James Bradley and Democrat Christina Pascucci were at 1% or less.
A significant share of 29% of likely voters remain undecided, the poll found, including 42% of independent voters, 37% of Republican voters, and 19% of Democratic voters, putting plenty of votes in play for the remainder of the race.
Under California primary rules, the two candidates who receive the most votes March 5 will compete for the seat in the November general election, regardless of party.
That could mean a Senate contest between two Democrats, as was the case when late Sen. Dianne Feinstein defeated fellow democrat Kevin de Leon in 2018, or a Democrat against a Republican like when appointed Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla defeated Republican lawyer Mark Meuser in 2022.
With California’s lopsided voter registration — 47% registered Democratic, 24% Republican and 22% with no party preference — a Republican would face difficult math to win the seat in November. But political analysts have noted that with several competitive Democrats splitting their voters in the race, Garvey would have a shot if he can consolidate GOP support.
Thursday’s poll questioned Garvey’s success at doing that, noting that while the slugger has courted fans of the Dodgers, which he helped lead to a World Series victory over the New York Yankees in 1981, Dodgers fans break 29% for Schiff, 16% for Garvey and 15% for Porter.
“Steve Garvey is not winning Dodgers fans’ votes, suggesting his strategy of emphasizing his baseball biography is not working,” the pollsters wrote in an analysis of their findings.
Kousser said Schiff’s “best strategy is to treat Steve Garvey as his main rival, elevating Garvey’s profile so that he will advance out of the primary.”
