In a Pac-12 season stocked with surprises and mediocrity, Washington State’s ascent makes the short list of unexpected developments.
The Cougars meandered through November and December, above .500 but under the radar because of a pillowy soft non-conference schedule. On the opening weekend of league play, they lost twice on the Mountain trip. Then came a home loss to Oregon and a 1-3 start.
Since then, WSU has won six of seven games, morphed into one of the hottest teams in the West and climbed onto the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Yep, the Cougars are a threat to make the field of 68 for the first time since it was a field of 64 and Klay Thompson was all the rage in Pullman, not nearing retirement with the Warriors.
There’s plenty to like about WSU’s resume, including four Quadrant I wins (the best kind), no Quadrant IV losses (the worst type) and a signature victory over Arizona.
Also, the Cougars own five wins on the road or neutral courts — an important piece to the NCAA selection process.
They are 40th in the NET rankings, indicative of a team squarely on the bubble.
The latest NCAA projections by ESPN list the Cougars as one of the first teams left out, suggesting a berth is within easy reach.
But there is one glaring flaw: A non-conference schedule that ranks No. 320 nationally out of 362 teams in the well-respected Pomeroy advanced metrics.
The barrage of early-season creampuffs won’t prevent the Cougars from sneaking into the NCAAs, but it limits their margin for error. All other components to their resume must be above reproach in order for the selection committee to get comfortable with the one part of the schedule they controlled.
Coach Kyle Smith had the chance to challenge his team and declined. Will the committee hold that against WSU? If given the option, it very well might.
And so we ask: Can the Cougars collect enough quality wins down the stretch, while avoiding bad losses, to remove all doubt?
If nothing else, it’s a fascinating topic that, in all candor, we never expected to address.
(NET rankings through Sunday)
1. Arizona (17-5/8-3)
Last week: 1
Results: beat Cal 91-65 and Stanford 82-71
NET ranking: No. 4
Next up: at Utah (Thursday)
Comment: The Wildcats are more likely to lose twice than win twice on the Mountain trip (although a split is the best bet). But if they sweep, the race for the top seed in Las Vegas is over.
2. Oregon (15-7/7-4)
Last week: 2
Results: won at USC 78-69, lost at UCLA 71-63
NET ranking: No. 57
Next up: vs. Washington (Thursday)
Comment: We considered swapping the Ducks and Cougars for this spot but gave Oregon a slight advantage because of the head-to-head victory in Pullman. This time next week, WSU could be the easy call for No. 2.
3. Washington State (16-6/7-4)
Last week: 3
Results: won at Washington 90-87 (OT)
NET ranking: No. 40
Next up: at Oregon State (Thursday)
Comment: Same warning we issued to Arizona two weeks ago applies to the Cougars: Don’t get caught peeking ahead to Eugene, or the chance to sweep becomes a recipe for getting swept.
4. Utah (15-7/6-5)
Last week: 5
Results: beat Colorado 73-68
NET ranking: No. 34
Next up: vs. Arizona (Thursday)
Comment: The Utes have precious few chances to collect Quadrant I wins at home. They can’t swing and miss against the Wildcats, not with a daunting, road-heavy finishing stretch.
5. Colorado (15-7/6-5)
Last week: 4
Results: lost at Utah 73-68
NET ranking: No. 29
Next up: vs. Arizona State (Thursday)
Comment: Colorado’s resume is weaker than Utah’s in several respects, including non-conference strength of schedule and number of Quad I wins: The Buffaloes have one; the Utes have four.
6. Cal (9-13/5-6)
Last week: 7
Results: lost at Arizona 91-65, won at ASU 81-66
NET ranking: No. 123
Next up: vs. USC (Wednesday)
Comment: We are two or three Bears wins away from declaring a winner in the Pac-12 Coach of the Year race. And at this rate, that point could come at the end of next week.
7. UCLA (11-11/6-5)
Last week: 10
Results: beat OSU 71-63 and Oregon 71-63
NET ranking: No. 124
Next up: at Stanford (Wednesday)
Comment: Anyone else notice the Bruins are behind Cal in the latest NET rankings? If you guessed that scenario would unfold for even a single day this season, stop reading our column and head straight to the nearest casino.
8. Stanford (11-10/6-5)
Last week: 8
Results: won at ASU 71-62, lost at Arizona 82-71
NET ranking: No. 100
Next up: vs. UCLA (Wednesday)
Comment: Stanford’s postseason outlook might be markedly different if the Cardinal hadn’t started the regular season in reverse. November matters. It matters a ton.
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9. Arizona State (11-11/5-6)
Last week: 6
Results: lost to Stanford 71-62 and Cal 81-66
NET ranking: No. 135
Next up: at Colorado (Thursday)
Comment: With four consecutive defeats and the Mountain trip ahead, plus a visit to Tucson on Feb. 17, ASU’s situation could get worse before it gets better … if it gets better.
10. Washington (12-10/4-7)
Last week: 9
Results: lost to WSU 90-87 (OT)
NET ranking: No. 73
Next up: at Oregon (Thursday)
Comment: After 40 fluid minutes against Washington State’s stout defense, the Huskies managed one field goal, two free throws and a barrage of scoreless possessions in overtime. That’s not good enough. Not nearly good enough.
11. USC (9-13/3-8)
Last week: 12
Results: lost to Oregon 78-69, beat OSU 82-54
NET ranking: No. 97
Next up: at Cal (Wednesday)
Comment: It has been nine years since the Trojans won fewer than eight conference games, which speaks to Andy Enfield’s sustained success … and to the wheels-are-off nature of this season.
12. Oregon State (11-11/3-8)
Last week: 11
Results: lost at UCLA 71-63 and USC 82-54
NET ranking: No. 169
Next up: vs. WSU (Thursday)
Comment: The Beavers have no chance to reach the NCAAs but plenty of opportunities to play the role of spoiler against a handful of teams on the bubble.
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